Who wins in Ukraine?

28 Mar 2022

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The whole situation is awful and depressing. Russia is making an aggressive, violent move, that has a chance of escalating in nuclear war. But why are they doing this?

Ukraine was close to joining NATO. This has been the goal of US policy in Ukraine for years, and is why the National Endowment for Democracy funded the ukrainian coup / revolution in 2014, so that their handpicked man, sympathetic to Europe / EU / NATO / US, could be placed in power. It is also why the US funded pro-American political parties in the 2004 election – manipulating voters in Ukraine and steering them towards conflict with their Russian neighbor.

That happened, and Russia feels even more strongly now that they need a buffer from NATO, which is not so much a defensive organization anymore, but a growing and aggressive organization. So, they take the areas they can, claiming that they are supporting ethnically-Russian seperatists in Ukraine. As the FAIR article above says:

From Russia’s point of view, a longtime adversary had successfully overthrown a neighboring government using violent far-right extremists.

The Crimean peninsula—82% of whose households speak Russian , and only 2% mainly Ukrainian—held a plebiscite in March 2014 on whether or not they should join Russia, or remain under the new Ukrainian government. The Pro-Russia camp won with 95% of the vote. The UN General Assembly, led by the US, voted to ignore the referendum results on the grounds that it was contrary to Ukraine’s constitution.

This balance of Russian and NATO power in Ukraine has been shaky for some time. It has been discussed that it might lead to war, by many people, such as Professor John Mearsheimer back in 2015.

What I think will happen in the near term

Ukraine will either fall to the Russians, or perhaps Russia will leave as a shattered, broken country, and let NATO pick up the pieces. A Ukrainian president’s advisor stated just this, back in 2019.

The above tweet now appears deleted. Thankfully, I archived it and saved it for safekeeping. It is here:

With a probability of 99.9%, our price for joining NATO is a big war with Russia. And if we do not join NATO, it is absorption by Russia within 10 to 12 years.

We pushed Russia to the breaking point, and now we get to see what plays out.

It is doubtful that we will directly intervene in Ukraine – this would escalate the situation by making US troops fight Russian troops, and directly lead to WW3.

Russia will be exiled on the Western stage (basically America / EU aligned countries). Exiled means economic sanctions and no movement of citizen’s money to the West. Gas and oil will be drastically more expensive for EU and for the US.

America will take the “win” of seeing the Western empire align against Russia. Russia will become much economically closer with China, and potentially Africa (much of Africa has been turning to Chinese investment over the past twenty years). Do they also become closer to other countries that are facing extreme sanctions from the West and are “almost” exiled, like Iran, Pakistan, Venezuela, Cuba, etc? Perhaps we are seeing the concrete formation of the next world war’s “Axis” powers.

Who wins economically?

This one is interesting. Russia will struggle economically for a while. But so will Europe and the US.

The US is still recovering from a recession and the consequent inflation. The Federal Reserve has needed to raise interest rates, to stop inflation growth. Now, debt will be more expensive in the future. But energy prices will continue to rise because we aren’t including Russia’s sales to Europe – their energy needs will stay the same, pushing up the price of energy in the Western markets. Expensive energy that is increasing in cost means that the cost of goods will continue to rise, e.g. we will have even more inflation.

Soon we will have both expensive debt and still high inflation. What a dangerous combination. I’m not sure how we get out of that situation.

Ukraine supplies 90% of “US semiconductor grade neon” gas. So computer chips will become even more expensive than they are now. Is the US prepared for more years of expensive chips holding back basic production and car production? No, we are not. Intel is still years away from bringing large scale chip fabrication back to the states.

China will be getting an easy win. Russia’s economy will be struggling, as their energy exports aren’t being purchased in the Western markets. China can step in and provide a lifeline to Russia by purchasing their energy exports, while still getting a cut value price as the ruble has collapsed.

This will also weaken the global demand for the dollar. China and Russia will become close trading partners for energy and other goods – none of which will be traded in the US dollar. Other countries that wish to continue trading with China (which is all of the countries. The world is too dependent upon China to stop trading now) might be pressured to also trade in non-US currency.

The US and the West lose economically, Russia also struggles in the short term, but China is a clear winner.

Who wins politically?

Politics often follow economics, but not always.

The “West” is known as the “West” because of our shared history that makes Western culture similar. Philosophies of individualism descending from Greek wisdom, peoples following Judeo-Christian religions – these things help define what it means to be a “Western” country.

But this does not mean that all “Western” countries are fated to get along. I think that the US has overstepped its role in policing NATO / EU, and there will be tremendous amounts of political resentment. We orchestrated this pressure pot, added heat until the situation boiled over, and it will be the EU who is left to deal with most of the fall out.

We have damaged our relationship with the rest of NATO and with the EU.

Additional note: The US has broken its unspoken pact with the West and being the world police. The deal was that the US could do whatever it wanted, acting unilaterally to protect its interests, and NATO / Europe wouldn’t have to worry about war on their home fronts. The US has antagonized Russia and invited an invasion of a country in Europe, and I don’t think this will help our long-term relationship with Europe.